Donald Trump released private equity executive David Gentile, who defrauded thousands of ordinary people and received seven years in prison for it, along with a fine. The pardon was quietly announced, but when it became public, questions arose again about why the US President continues to ignore Sam Bankman-Fried's requests.

Kalshi users believe the likelihood of Bankman-Fried being pardoned by the end of this year is only 4%. These figures suggest that members of the crypto community consider his release from prison unlikely, especially since the exchange's founder financed Donald Trump's political rival.

Gentile was the founder and CEO of GPB Capital, which, according to US prosecutors, raised approximately $1.6 billion from investors by exaggerating the success of the private equity fund.

White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt, speaking on the matter, hinted that the case was reexamined because the Biden-era Justice Department, which oversaw the prosecution, mischaracterized it as a Ponzi scheme, and Gentile had concerns about perjury.

Trump's pardons mostly affect people who received more lenient sentences and had ties to MAGA. Bankman-Fried, with his billion-dollar fraud conviction and massive donation to Biden, doesn't fit into either category. Nevertheless, the former FTX CEO remains hopeful.