This is due to the fact that the shutdown in the United States is superimposed on political tensions abroad, increasing currency risks.

Over the past 60 trading days, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index has been within one standard deviation of its average about 80% of the time, according to Bloomberg data. At the beginning of the month, the indicator reached 88%, the highest since 2013.

Options indicate the continuation of the pattern: dollar volatility is close to its lows since July 2024, and the expected monthly range has narrowed over the past week.

On the one hand, "green" is gaining support as markets retreat from the "sell American" strategy. At the same time, its main competitors are under pressure: the budget impasse in France is weighing on the euro, and the yen is declining due to fears that the new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will increase spending and postpone a rate hike.

At the same time, according to Alex Cohen, an FX strategist at Bank of America Corp., the shutdown in Washington, which has been going on for the 22nd day, should put pressure on the dollar. This is the second longest period of government shutdown in history, and as a rule, the longer it lasts, the deeper the dollar's decline.

The global trade war and US credit problems may have a mixed effect on the currency, Cohen noted. But recent events are so diverse that the pros and cons are mutually balanced, suppressing volatility.