Analysts at HSBC have raised their forecast for the price of gold, predicting that the yellow metal will hit the $5,000-per-ounce level next year thanks to broad uncertainty.

In a note, the brokerage said a tear higher in bullion will likely extend into the first half of 2026, as its safe-haven status is burnished by increased geopolitical risks and murkiness around U.S. economic policy. Rising public debt and threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve could further drive gold’s record run, they added.

In recent days, gold has received a boost from a host of factors, including the renewal of trade tensions between the U.S. and China and the resumption of interest rate cuts by the Fed. Russian incursions into the airspace of NATO countries and weakness in the U.S. dollar have acted to push up the precious metal as well.

"This is a powerfully bullish cocktail which to date has not been seriously challenged by the bearish argument for lower prices," the HSBC analysts wrote.

"In the current economic and geopolitical climate gold has been targeted by a wide array of investors as never before."

Along with traditional holders like hedge funds and portfolio managers, a new coterie of institutional traders and high net worth individuals have been piling into gold.

While much of this trend has been powered by fears of missing out on a history-making spike in gold, many of these new buyers are likely to stay in the space even after the rally peters out, the analysts said, adding that this is "not so much for appreciation necessarily as for gold’s diversification and ’safe haven’ qualities."

Typically, gold is seen as a relatively secure port for investment during times of heightened economic or political stress. Yet this current rally has been additionally bolstered by the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates, which tends to benefit non-yielding gold, as well as robust central bank buying activity and inflows into gold-linked exchange traded funds.

On Friday, spot gold had risen 0.3% to $4,338.83 per ounce by 06:04 ET (10:04 GMT), after briefly touching a new peak of $4,379.29/oz earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December jumped 1.1% to $4,353.14/oz.

Gold is now on track to deliver its ninth consecutive weekly gain, and has extended its record-breaking rally to a fifth straight session.

Although there is currently no indication that the rally will end in the immediate or near term, some warning signs are "down the road," including a possible high degree of volatility, the analysts noted. The longer the gains go on for, there may be a need for investors to "consolidate if not correct," they flagged.

Meanwhile, higher prices can erode physical demand for the metal and encourage supply, they said. At the same time, any downturn in stocks could persuade investors to liquidate their long gold positions to help raise cash and meet margin calls, they added.

With these headwinds in mind, the analysts projected that there could be "some price moderation" in gold in the second half of 2026.